composing probable estimations forecasting intelligent estimations computing precise insights forecasting calibrated insights computing probable forecasts mapping the future delivering precise estimations assembling probable estimations assembling intelligent understanding generating critical contingencies predicting accurate estimations modeling intelligent understanding generating intelligent predictions exploring accurate wisdom


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will the IBM's Summit remain the top dog in supercomputing power?

In early June, IBM together with the Department of Energy launched Summit, the world's newest biggest supercomputer. It processes at a mind-numbing 200,000 trillion calculations per second.

Per TechCrunch:

Summit... features 4,608 compute servers with two 22-core IBM Power9 chips and six Nvidia Tesla V100 GPUs each. In total, the system also features over 10 petabytes of memory.

For now, Summit stands at the top (so to speak) of the TOP500 list. But international competition in the supercomputer realm is fierce. As GCN reported last year:

China’s dominance on the recent [top supercomputer] lists indicates it is investing heavily in high-performance computing as supercomputers become a vital tool for simulating everything from nuclear explosions to medicine.

Meanwhile, in early 2018, the EU announced it was joining the party. Engadget reported:

Buying and developing supercomputing technology is crazy expensive, with exascale machines expected to cost up to a half billion dollars. To buy and develop them, Europe will spend $486 million itself, with the balance of the $1.2 billion coming from member states. It plans to first acquire machines that can compete with current top supercomputers, then develop its own exascale machines by 2023.

It seems unlikely that another country (e.g. China) will break Summit's record in the next few months. But it also seems inevitable that Summit will eventually be dethroned.

Will Summit continue to hold the top spot on the upcoming November Top500 list? (the official list comparing the world's supercomputers)


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.