34 comments
122 forecasters
Will Boris Johnson fail to be elected in the next UK General Election?
70%chance
Annulled
The community gave this a 70% chance, and it resolved Annulled.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Apr 21, 2022
Closes:Sep 30, 2024
Resolved:Jul 4, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 23, 2022
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Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?
0.1% chance
129
Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before January 1, 2035?
51% chance
41
When will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister?
14 Oct 2028
(17 Feb 2027 - 14 Dec 2029)
14 Oct 2028
(17 Feb 2027 - 14 Dec 2029)
17 forecasters