7 comments
96 forecasters
Of the top 10 AI companies, how many will pledge not to develop lethal autonomous weapons?
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jul 18, 2018
Closes:Aug 15, 2018
Resolved:Nov 15, 2018
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 19, 2018
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Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?
5% chance
48
When will a G-20 country field fully-autonomous, no human-in-the-loop lethal military AI weapon systems?
Apr 2031
(09 Mar 2029 - Jun 2036)
Apr 2031
(09 Mar 2029 - Jun 2036)
17 forecasters
Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?
80% chance
59