70 forecasters

Will the advanced LIGO team announce the discovery of gravitational waves by end of March?

75%chance

75%chance

ResolvedYes

ResolvedYes

The community gave this a 75% chance, and it resolved Yes.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Jan 18, 2016

Closes:

Feb 11, 2016

Resolved:

Mar 31, 2016

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 20, 2016

Natural Sciences

2016 Leaderboard

After 10 years of black hole science, Stephen Hawking proven right

NPR Online News•Sep 11, 2025

Black hole collision confirms decades-old predictions by Einstein and Hawking

CNN•Sep 11, 2025

Gravitational waves finally prove Stephen Hawking's black hole theorem

New Scientist•Sep 10, 2025

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