calculating precise estimations formulating accurate futures modeling intelligent futures mapping critical insights calculating probable understanding mapping the future composing calibrated predictions modeling calibrated insights aggregating quantitative estimations forecasting predictive futures forecasting probable estimations forecasting predictive insights forecasting definitive insights delivering predictive wisdom

Question

Will the advanced LIGO team announce the discovery of gravitational waves by end of March?

The Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) re-opened in September 2015 after a significant upgrade.

Designed with 10x greater sensitivity and a wider range of covered frequencies than the original LIGO, advanced LIGO should, according to its designers, have an "enhanced physics reach that during its first several hours of operation will exceed the integrated observations of the 1 year LIGO Science Run."

A full description of the experiment in gory detail can be found here.

Calculations of the expected detection rates suggest tens and potentially hundreds of detectable events per year under reasonable assumptions about neutron star and other types of binaries (and of course assuming General Relativity is correct, etc.)

Rumors have been flying that detections have happened.

Will the LIGO experiment publicly announce a 5-sigma (or equivalent) discovery of astrophysical gravitational waves by March 31, 2016?

Make a predictionUpdate your predictionFinal prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Thanks for predicting!

Since you're not signed in, your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

  • {{qctrl.question.predictionCount()}} predictions by {{qctrl.question.uniquePredictionCount()}} users
  • The median prediction is {{qctrl.question.predictionMedian() | percent:0}}
  • The mean prediction is {{qctrl.question.predictionMean() | percent:0}}

Delete Comment

Are you sure you want to delete this comment written by {{ cctrl.deleteComm.author_name }}?
Yes

{{cctrl.deleteComm.comment_text}}

Comments ({{cctrl.commentCount}})

Post a Comment:

{{cctrl.submitError}}
Post Preview (using Markdown)

Post a Comment

View Comments: