Question

Will the advanced LIGO team announce the discovery of gravitational waves by end of March?

Resolved:Yes

16 comments16

Total Forecasters70

Community Prediction

75%

(63% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 75%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

23.7

Community Peer Score

37.1

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Jan 18, 2016

Closes:

Feb 11, 2016

Resolves:

Mar 31, 2016

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 20, 2016

Natural Sciences

Space

2016 Leaderboard

Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected by November 30, 2027?

67%

Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?

53%

Will a third LIGO detector be built in India before 2028?

28%