7 comments
71 forecasters
If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?
Current estimate
Feb 2046
Key Factors
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Forecast Timeline
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Apr 21, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2250
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2300
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 23, 2022
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
26% chance
299
If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?
Apr 2036
(13 Sep 2029 - Dec 2051)
Apr 2036
(13 Sep 2029 - Dec 2051)
164 forecasters
Five years after AGI, will humans be extinct?
2% chance
140