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Security Guarantee for Ukraine before 2024

Trustworthy News Ukraine Conflict Improve the News

Question

Ukraine and Russia entered peace negotiations in March 2022, with the most recent round of negotiations in Istanbul on March 29.

According to Newsweek, in April 2022 Ukrainian official Igor Zhovkva said "Ukraine's long-running conflict with Russia cannot end without concrete security guarantees strong enough to deter Moscow."

Sebastian Sprenger from Defense News wrote on April 4, 2022,

"Last week, Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration, said her government envisions a security-guarantees regime endorsed by Budapest Memorandum signatories as well as the United Nations Security Council. [...]

"Sean Monaghan, an analyst with the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the legal format of whatever security guarantees the West can muster for Ukraine will be ultimately secondary. More important, and difficult, he told Defense News, will be the willingness of European populations to back them by military force."

As of April 6, 2022, Ukraine has entered confidential talks with Germany about possible security guarantees Germany could offer the country. On April 9, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited Kyiv, offering support in continuation with the 2022 UK-Poland-Ukraine Alliance

Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?

This question will resolve as "Yes" if, at any time between April 1, 2022 and January 1, 2024, any country enters a legal agreement with Ukraine to provide a security guarantee for Ukraine with the promise to back that guarantee with the deployment of military personnel. Official statements by Ukraine and their cosignatory will be required for resolution. A security guarantee from Russia to Ukraine will be excluded from resolving this question.

The security guarantee must protect the sovereignty of at least some portion of Ukrainian territory from invasion by either land, sea, or air, or to aid Ukraine with military deployments under other conditions of the treaty. The security guarantee must last for at least 6 months or indefinitely. Agreements to provide Ukraine with any other form of assistance, including funding or weapons, will not be sufficient to resolve the question.

This question asks specifically about security guarantees outside the frameworks of NATO, EU, or UN membership.

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