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Ukraine Controls Sevastapol on Jan 1, 2024

Created by casens on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}

Community prediction hidden {{qctrl.cpHiddenPeriodDurationString()}}, to be revealed on {{qctrl.question.cp_hidden_period_ends_time | dateStr}} • The hidden period counts for {{qctrl.question.cp_hidden_weight_coverage | percent}} of total coverage • {{qctrl.remainingCoverage() | percent}} coverage remaining

Published by casens on {{qctrl.question.publish_time | dateStr}}

Question

The city of Sevastopol in Crimea currently holds the Russian Black Sea Fleet in its naval base, which has been crucial to Russia's operations in Syria since 2014.

As the Russo-Ukrainian conflict continues and peace negotiations begin in earnest, it is possible that Ukraine will reclaim previously annexed pieces of land claimed by Russia in 2014, including Crimea. This would return Sevastapol to Ukrainian control, and could potentially remove a major Russian naval hold in the Black Sea.

Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?

This question will resolve as "Yes" if more than 50% of Sevastopol's area is under de facto Ukrainian military and political control on January 1, 2024. Metaculus Admins will consider all credible media reports and international military intelligence statements to determine resolution.

Categories:

Geopolitics – Armed Conflict

Ukraine

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