Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Ukraine Controls Sevastapol on Jan 1, 2024

Trustworthy News Ukraine Conflict Improve the News

Question

The city of Sevastopol in Crimea currently holds the Russian Black Sea Fleet in its naval base, which has been crucial to Russia's operations in Syria since 2014.

As the Russo-Ukrainian conflict continues and peace negotiations begin in earnest, it is possible that Ukraine will reclaim previously annexed pieces of land claimed by Russia in 2014, including Crimea. This would return Sevastapol to Ukrainian control, and could potentially remove a major Russian naval hold in the Black Sea.

Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?

This question will resolve as "Yes" if more than 50% of Sevastopol's area is under de facto Ukrainian military and political control on January 1, 2024. Metaculus Admins will consider all credible media reports and international military intelligence statements to determine resolution.

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.