506 forecasters

Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?

0.1%chance

0.1%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 0% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Apr 20, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolved:

Dec 31, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 20, 2022

Ukraine Conflict

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Russia’s Putin hails war advances; Ukraine retakes parts of Donetsk

Al Jazeera•Sep 11, 2025

Despair and destruction: Civilians in Ukraine’s eastern strongholds struggle as Russia advances

Associated Press•Sep 10, 2025

Putin told US he will occupy Donbas region by end of 2025, Zelensky claims

Independent•Sep 10, 2025

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