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Ukraine Controls DNR/LNR on Jan 1, 2024

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In February 2014, Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine. While not officially annexed in 2014, some regions of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts have remained under the control of two Russian-aligned governments since the invasion. These two provinces have claimed independence from Ukraine, calling themselves Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic. The Ukrainian Government considers the DPR and LPR to be terrorist organizations.

Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?

This question will resolve as Yes if, on January 1, 2024, the Ukrainian government or military has control of at least 90% of the Donetsk Oblast and at least 90% of the Luhansk Oblast, measured by area.

De facto control can occur through any means, including military victory or ceasefire and peace negotiations.

Metaculus will consider all credible media reports and international government intelligence statements to determine the extent of Ukrainian control in these regions.

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