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Russian Control of New Territory 2024-01-01

Ukraine Conflict


In February 2014, Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine. While not officially annexed in 2014, some regions of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts have remained under the control of two Russian-aligned governments since the invasion. These two provinces have claimed independence from Ukraine, calling themselves Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic. The Ukrainian Government considers the DPR and LPR to be terrorist organizations.

Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?

This question will resolve positively if, on January 1, 2024, Russia de facto controls any land or territory outside the Crimean peninsula or the Donestk/Luhansk oblasts, which were Ukrainian territory on January 1, 2014. Breakaway secessionist states in Ukraine recieving support from Russian armed forces will be considered "Russian controlled" for the purposes of this question.

Metaculus Admins will consider all credible media reports and international government intelligence statements to determine the extent of Russian de facto control on January 1, 2024.

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