Question

Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?

Resolved:Yes

56 comments56

Total Forecasters607

Community Prediction

99.4%

(99% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99.4%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

31.8

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Apr 20, 2022

Closes:

Dec 30, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 20, 2022

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Ukraine war latest: Russia claims full control over Ukrainian region for first time since war began

•Jul 2, 2025

Ukraine war latest: Russia claims full control over Ukrainian region for first time since war began

•Jul 2, 2025

Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 1,223

Al Jazeera•Jul 1, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

11%

Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?

99%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Apr 20, 2022

Closes:

Dec 30, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 20, 2022

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Ukraine war latest: Russia claims full control over Ukrainian region for first time since war began

•Jul 2, 2025

Ukraine war latest: Russia claims full control over Ukrainian region for first time since war began

•Jul 2, 2025

Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 1,223

Al Jazeera•Jul 1, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

11%

Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?

99%