Question

Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?

Resolved:Yes

56 comments56

Total Forecasters607

Community Prediction

99.4%

(99% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99.4%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

57.1

Community Peer Score

31.8

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Apr 20, 2022

Closes:

Dec 30, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 20, 2022

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Ukraine still holds ground inside Russia's Kursk, commander says

•Jun 22, 2025

Ukraine still holds ground inside Russia's Kursk, commander says

•Jun 22, 2025

Putin says 'the whole of Ukraine is ours' — in theory

•Jun 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

13%

Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?

99%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Apr 20, 2022

Closes:

Dec 30, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 20, 2022

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Ukraine still holds ground inside Russia's Kursk, commander says

•Jun 22, 2025

Ukraine still holds ground inside Russia's Kursk, commander says

•Jun 22, 2025

Putin says 'the whole of Ukraine is ours' — in theory

•Jun 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

13%

Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?

99%