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Ukraine Pledges to Not Join NATO 2024

Ukraine Conflict

Question

When Ukraine applied for NATO membership in 2008 their application was denied, though many NATO members (including the USA) were in favor of Ukraine's joining the alliance. In 2019, in a 334-51 vote, Ukraine amended their constitution to include their intentions of joining the EU and NATO (Ukraine Constitution, Стаття 116, 1-1).

In December 2021, during the escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, Russia demanded veto power in any future decision on Ukraine's NATO membership. This would be in violation of NATO's "open door" policy, which NATO leaders reaffirmed on March 24 2022.

Stanley Sloan, an expert in transatlantic relations at Middlebury College and a former international security officer said in February 2022 that Ukraine's near-term NATO membership was "Unlikely, unlikely to happen. Just too fraught with too many difficulties at this point."

Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?

This question will resolve as "Yes" if, at any time between April 1, 2022 to January 1, 2024, the Ukrainian government makes an official statement or commitment that they will not seek membership to NATO. This commitment must be effective for a minimum of 1 year, or for an indefinite period. This commitment may be unconditional or conditional (such as in exchange for security guarantees from Russia); in this case, this question will resolve positively if such an agreement is affirmed by all parties at any time between April 1, 2022 to January 1, 2024.

To qualify for resolution, statements must be made by the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers or the Minister of Foreign Affairs, or the official spokesperson of those offices. Statements by NATO officials or NATO members are not necessary nor sufficient for the resolution of this question.

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