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Before 8 September 2018, will any of the remaining signatories to the Iran nuclear deal announce they are withdrawing?
This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge.
China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, the European Union, and Iran signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in July 2015 (The Washington Post, Al-Monitor). The United States announced its withdrawal from the deal on 8 May 2018 (NY Times).
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
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When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.