Question

Will Russia lose control of the Kuril Islands before 2028?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters77

Community Prediction1% (1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Authors:

EvanHarper

Opened:

Apr 27, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Feb 1, 2028

Geopolitics

World War II

Kuril Islands dispute

Russia is advancing in Kursk, threatening Ukraine’s sole territorial bargaining counter

CNN•Mar 9, 2025

Russia is advancing in Kursk, threatening Ukraine’s sole territorial bargaining counter

•Mar 10, 2025

Russia is advancing in Kursk, threatening Ukraine’s sole territorial bargaining counter

CNN•Mar 10, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia's total territory decrease by at least 20% before 2028?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

16%

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

EvanHarper

Opened:

Apr 27, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Feb 1, 2028

Geopolitics

World War II

Kuril Islands dispute

Russia is advancing in Kursk, threatening Ukraine’s sole territorial bargaining counter

CNN•Mar 9, 2025

Russia is advancing in Kursk, threatening Ukraine’s sole territorial bargaining counter

•Mar 10, 2025

Russia is advancing in Kursk, threatening Ukraine’s sole territorial bargaining counter

CNN•Mar 10, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia's total territory decrease by at least 20% before 2028?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

16%