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On April 7, 2022, Juraj Mesík of the Slovak Foreign Policy Association predicted that Russia will collapse in the next 3 to 5 years (machine translation below):

Only three forces hold the Russian Empire together: the ideology of the superpower, the security apparatus (Cheka - NKVD - KGB - FSB) and oil and gas revenues. The latter makes it possible to finance militarism, the repressive apparatus and to corrupt politicians in Europe and around the world.

All three of these forces will weaken and collapse sharply in the coming months and years as a result of Russia's prolonged military defeat in Ukraine, Western sanctions and the rapid development of electric mobility.

Russia's military and repressive forces are bleeding in Ukraine, Russia's great chauvinism will be deadly, and a rapid drop in oil and gas sales combined with further sanctions will destroy the Kremlin economically and prevent it from further bribing political elites inside Russia and abroad.

[...] the attack on Ukraine radically accelerated the development of events - so the collapse of Russia becomes a matter of the next 3-5 years.

Mesík predicted as a result of this collapse that Russia would lose control over many regions in current territorial disputes, such as Ukraine's Crimean peninsula or the breakaway states of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Mesík further speculated about a potential fragmentation of Russia's far east.