8 comments
28 forecasters
Will the Metaculus question about Russian troops in Kyiv in 2022 resolve ambiguously?
50%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 50% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:May 8, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2023
Resolved:May 31, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:May 9, 2022
Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?
15% chance
121
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?
0.1% chance
174
Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?
6% chance
1.8k