Question

Will the weights of the 175B parameter model be made publicly available via a leak or hack by 2023?

Resolved:No

2 comments2

Total Forecasters57

Community Prediction

(1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

72.6

Community Peer Score

10.7

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

May 5, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

May 6, 2022

Business of AI

Artificial Intelligence

2022 Leaderboard

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

1.44M

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

28%

When will credible sources reveal the existence of something similar to DALL-E but significantly bigger?

12 Dec 2024

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

May 5, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

May 6, 2022

Business of AI

Artificial Intelligence

2022 Leaderboard

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

1.44M

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

28%

When will credible sources reveal the existence of something similar to DALL-E but significantly bigger?

12 Dec 2024