Profile
Save
Username
Formerly Known As
Member Since
- April 8, 2018
Bio
Website
{{err}}
{{"metaculusSupporterHeading" | translate}}
{{"supporterSinceHeading" | translate}}
- {{pctrl.account.supporter_since | date:'MMMM d, y'}}
{{"changeUsernameHeading" | translate}}
{{"changeUsernameDescription" | translate}}
Forecaster Stats
Predictions
2883 predictions on 828 questions (542 resolved)
Comments
2809 comments on 1310 questions
Tournaments and Projects
- Alt-Protein Tournament
- Keep Virginia Safe Tournament
- Trade Signal Tournament
- Nuclear Risk Tournament
- Virginia Lightning Round Tournament
- Metaculus Journal
- Real-Time Pandemic Decision Making
- Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
- Global Trends 2022
- AI Progress Essay Contest
- FluSight Challenge 2021/22
- China and Global Cooperation
- Ukraine Conflict
- White Hat Cyber
- Cultured Meat Tournament
- Forecasting AI Progress
- Biosecurity Tournament
- Economist 2021
- Humanitarian Conflict & Economic Risk
- Forecasting Our World in Data
- FluSight Challenge 2022/23
- 🔰Q4 2022 Beginner Tournament 🔰
- 🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
- ACX 2023 Prediction Contest
- 🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰
- Keep Virginia Safe II
- 📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰
- 🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰
- Regulation of AI
- Public Perception of AI
- AI Demonstrations
- Business of AI
- AI Training and Compute
- AGI Outcomes
- AI in China
- AI Technical Benchmarks
- AI Safety
- Programs
- Platform
- Research
- 🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆
- Reducing Antibiotic Resistance In Aquaculture
- FRO-casting
- Conditional Cup
- Antibody Characterization through Open Science
- Platform for Human Molecular Monitoring
- Systematic Study of Phage Genes and Functions
- Complete Map of Neural Input-Output Functions
- 🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆
- Global Pulse Tournament
- Respiratory Outlook 2023/24
- Chinese AI Chips
- ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
- 🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆
- Keep Virginia Safe: Round 2
- Climate Tipping Points Round 2
- Virginia Lightning Round: Week 3
- Virginia Lightning Round: Week 4
- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making: Round 2
- Keep Virginia Safe II: Keep Virginia Safe Series
- Keep Virginia Safe II: Variant Characteristics Series
- Virginia Lightning Round: Week 2
- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making: Round 3
- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making: Round 5
- Climate Tipping Points Round 1
- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making: Round 6
- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making: Round 1
- Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round
- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making: Round 9
- Forecasting AI Progress: Deep Learning Round
- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making: Round 7
- Alt-Protein Tournament Round 1
- Keep Virginia Safe: Round 1
- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making: Round 8
- Keep Virginia Safe II: Hospitalizations Series
- Keep Virginia Safe: Round 3
- Real-time Pandemic Decision Making: Round 4
- Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round
- Virginia Lightning Round: Week 1
- Alt-Protein Tournament Round 2
- 🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Organizations
Author Stats
Questions
Forecasts
22785 unique forecasts on authored questions
Popular Questions
- Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory? (1874 forecasts)
- Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024? (1670 forecasts)
- How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th? (1210 forecasts)
- Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021? (1070 forecasts)
- Will AI progress surprise us by predictions of AGI jumping sharply? (1015 forecasts)