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- April 8, 2018
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Forecaster Stats
Level
∞ (Admin)
Predictions
2877 predictions on 825 questions (514 resolved)
Comments
2798 comments on 1308 questions
Rank
68th
Achievements
Tournaments and Projects
- Alt-Protein Tournament
- Keep Virginia Safe Tournament
- Trade Signal Tournament
- Nuclear Risk Tournament
- Virginia Lightning Round Tournament
- Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
- Metaculus Journal
- Real-Time Pandemic Decision Making
- Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
- Global Trends 2022
- AI Progress Essay Contest
- FluSight Challenge 2021/22
- China and Global Cooperation
- Ukraine Conflict
- White Hat Cyber
- Cultured Meat Tournament
- Forecasting AI Progress
- Mpox (Monkeypox)
- Autocrat Public Figures Series
- Biosecurity Tournament
- Improve the News
- Economist 2021
- Humanitarian Conflict & Economic Risk
- Transparent Replications
- Forecasting Our World in Data
- FluSight Challenge 2022/23
- Red Lines in Ukraine
- 🔰Q4 2022 Beginner Tournament 🔰
- 🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
- Economic Indicators
- 🤖 LLM Milestones 🤖
- 🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰
- 📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰
- 🔰Beginner Tournament 🔰
- Regulation of AI
- Public Perception of AI
- AI Demonstrations
- Business of AI
- AI Training and Compute
- AGI Outcomes
- AI in China
- AI Technical Benchmarks
- AI Safety
- 🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆
- Reducing Antibiotic Resistance In Aquaculture
Causes and Organizations
Author Stats
Questions
Forecasts
22225 unique forecasts on authored questions
Top Categories
- Effective Altruism (80)
- Animal Welfare Series (45)
- Energy and Climate Series (30)
- Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19) (28)
- Computer Science – AI and Machine Learning (25)
Popular Questions
- Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory? (1642 forecasts)
- Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024? (1568 forecasts)
- How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th? (1210 forecasts)
- Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021? (1070 forecasts)
- Will AI progress surprise us by predictions of AGI jumping sharply? (946 forecasts)