Question

Will Facebook decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023?

Resolved:No

3 comments3

Total Forecasters68

Community Prediction

(1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

71.9

Community Peer Score

10.7

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

May 5, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

May 6, 2022

Business of AI

Artificial Intelligence

2022 Leaderboard

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

1.44M

When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?

31 Aug 2025

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be downloadable by the general public?

Apr 2032

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

May 5, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

May 6, 2022

Business of AI

Artificial Intelligence

2022 Leaderboard

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

1.44M

When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?

31 Aug 2025

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be downloadable by the general public?

Apr 2032