🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will the next assassination of a sitting US President occur after January 1, 2100?

14
23
Total Forecasters227
Community Prediction28.1% (11% - 33%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 28.1%
Authors:
AdamK
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Politics
Attempted assassination of Ronald Reagan
John Hinckley Jr.
Ronald Reagan
William McKinley
Lee Harvey Oswald
John Wilkes Booth
Assassination of Abraham Lincoln
Charles J. Guiteau
Assassination of James A. Garfield
Leon Czolgosz

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