230 forecasters

Will the next assassination of a sitting US President occur after January 1, 2100?

25%chance

Forecast Timeline

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Authors:

Opened:

Jul 21, 2018

Closes:

Dec 31, 2099

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2099

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 22, 2018

A year ago today, Donald Trump survived a second apparent assassination attempt

USA Today•Sep 15, 2025

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Red State•Sep 14, 2025

Political violence in recent American history: Charlie Kirk is far from the first victim

CNN•Sep 14, 2025

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