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US State Bans Inter-Racial Marriage by 2030

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On May 2, 2022 POLITICO published a leaked draft of a Supreme Court Decision which would overturn Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey. Justice Alito wrote "The inescapable conclusion is that a right to abortion is not deeply rooted in the Nation's history and traditions." Ciara Torres-Spelliscy, law professor at Stetson University, said of Alito's leaked opinion: "After this [opinion], Loving, Windsor, and Obergefell are all on constitutionally thin ice." Loving v. Virginia is a landmark 1967 SCOTUS case which found that laws banning inter-racial marriage were unconstitutional.

Michelle Deal-Zimmerman, writing for the Baltimore Sun in May 2022, wrote "If, OK, when the U.S. Supreme Court gets around to banning interracial marriage, my husband and I wonder what will happen. [...] I don’t wish to sound alarmist, but a lot of things we have taken for granted during the last half-century appear to be crumbling before our eyes."

David Bernstein, Law Professor writing for said in May 2022, "No, the Supreme Court is Not Going to Reconsider the Constitutionality of Bans on Interracial Marriage [...] overruling Loving would be politically unthinkable."

Will inter-racial marriage be banned in any US State by 2030?

This question will resolve as Yes if, at any time between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2030, inter-racial marriages are either not granted or not recognized on equal footing with same-race marriages by any one or more US States, or by the US federal government.

"Equal footing" here means that interracial marriages are performed and recognized on the same terms and conditions as the marriages of same-race couples, with married interracial couples being afforded all the accompanying rights and responsibilities married same-race couples are granted, or recognized as having.

This question may resolve as Yes if Loving v. Virginia is overturned, however a US State would then need to enforce a ban on inter-racial marriages to resolve the question as Yes. This may also occur if any state enforces such a ban, and the ban is not challenged by courts.

Any ban on inter-racial marriage must be enforced for at least one couple to resolve the question as Yes; a ban which is "on the books" but unenforced is insufficient to resolve the question.

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