Question

Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026?

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Authors:

pranaypkot

Opened:

Jun 13, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 15, 2022

Verity

Technology

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Live updates: Trump attends NATO summit; Andrew Cuomo concedes NYC mayoral primary election

NBC•Jun 25, 2025

Strikes on Iran showed the need for stealthy submarines that can launch a whole lot of missiles. The US Navy is about to lose that.

Business Insider•Jun 24, 2025

Aukus vital to ‘deter Chinese aggression’, say US lawmakers, as Trump urged to recommit to submarine deal

Guardian•Jun 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Authors:

pranaypkot

Opened:

Jun 13, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 15, 2022

Verity

Technology

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Live updates: Trump attends NATO summit; Andrew Cuomo concedes NYC mayoral primary election

NBC•Jun 25, 2025

Strikes on Iran showed the need for stealthy submarines that can launch a whole lot of missiles. The US Navy is about to lose that.

Business Insider•Jun 24, 2025

Aukus vital to ‘deter Chinese aggression’, say US lawmakers, as Trump urged to recommit to submarine deal

Guardian•Jun 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will Australia commission its first nuclear-powered submarine?

May 2040

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

10%

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

80%