In another question on Metaculus, economic growth was used to characterize the timing of the technological singularity. The idea is that, if advanced artificial intelligence is created and can cheaply automate human labor, then we should expect a productivity explosion, and thus, a greatly increased rate of economic growth.

However, various authors have objected to this characterization of the technological singularity, due to fact that economics may become radically different upon the creation of advanced artificial intelligence. For example, if there is a single AI agent that more-or-less controls all relevant world affairs, there may be no standard meaning to the term "market price", which could make it very difficult to calculate GDP.

A more neutral way to characterize the technological singularity may be to use growth in total world energy consumption, measured in Joules. By "world" I do not necessarily mean planet Earth, as AI may expand its reach to other planets, and the sun. For context, since 1966, the most that world energy consumption has grown in a single year was 6.7%, in 1969, according to Our World In Data.

In what year will world energy consumption first exceed 130% of every prior year?

This question will resolve on January 1 on the first year during which a credible source indicates that total world direct primary energy consumption by all of humans and our intellectual descendents (such as Artificial Intelligence) exceeded 130.0% of every prior year (ie. the value exceeds 130% for any prior individual year). If this does not occur by January 1, 2201, this question will resolve as >January 1, 2201.