Question

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

24 comments24

Total Forecasters208

Community Prediction66%

Make a Prediction

community: 66%

median 66.0%mean 64.6%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

Joint Chiefs of Staff

If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?

75%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

52%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

19%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

Joint Chiefs of Staff

Most Taiwanese believe China unlikely to invade in coming five years, poll shows

NBC•Oct 9, 2024

Poll: Most Taiwanese Would Fight Chinese Invasion, but Only Half Expect America to Help

Breitbart•Oct 11, 2024

China Holds War Games Around Taiwan

Time•Oct 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?

75%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

52%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

19%