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US Response If China Invades Taiwan 2035

Question

From CNN,

President Joe Biden said Monday that the United States would intervene militarily if China attempts to take Taiwan by force, a warning that appeared to deviate from the deliberate ambiguity traditionally held by Washington.

The White House quickly downplayed the comments, saying they don't reflect a change in US policy. It's the third time in recent months -- including during a CNN town hall in October -- that Biden has said the US would protect Taiwan from a Chinese attack, only to have the White House walk back those remarks.

During a joint news conference with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Tokyo, Biden was asked if the US would be willing to go further to help Taiwan in the event of an invasion than it did with Ukraine.

"You didn't want to get involved in the Ukraine conflict militarily for obvious reasons. Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan if it comes to that?" a reporter asked.

"Yes," Biden replied. "That's the commitment we made."

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military forces?

If China does not launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before January 1, 2035, then this question will resolve as Ambiguous. If China does invade Taiwan, this question will resolve as Yes if the United States responds with military forces within 365 days from of the beginning of the Chinese invasion.

In line with our main question, China will be considered to have launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan if either of these occur:

  • The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.

  • At least 1,000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule.

The United States will be considered to have responded with military forces if there is an offensive physical attack on Chinese infrastructure, ships, military personnel, or civilians, in direct retaliation to the full-scale invasion, and this attack is ordered by a member of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff or the President. Cyberattacks will not be considered offensive physical attacks, but covert operations to e.g. assassinate Chinese nationals, will count.

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