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Chinese Retaliation US Intervention in Taiwan


During Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin’s Regular Press Conference in China on May 23, 2022, Agence France-Presse asked,

President Biden has said that the United States would defend Taiwan militarily if Beijing invaded or forcibly tried to take control of Taiwan. [...] how will this affect China-US ties going forward?

Wang Wenbin replied,

China expresses strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition to the remarks by the US side. [...] We urge the US side to abide by the one-China principle and the stipulations in the three China-US joint communiqués, honor its important commitment of not supporting “Taiwan independence”, speak and act with prudence on the Taiwan question, and avoid sending any wrong signal to the “Taiwan independence” separatist forces, lest it should seriously undermine peace across the Taiwan Strait and China-US relations. China will take firm actions to safeguard its sovereignty and security interests. We mean what we say.

If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?

This question is conditioned on China launching an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US responding militarily to defend Taiwan against an invasion. In other words, this question will only resolve non-ambiguously if this other Metaculus question resolves positively, which is itself conditioned on this Metaculus question.

This question resolves positively if, in direct retaliation to a United States attack on China, China attacks some part of the United States' internationally recognized territory within one year of the United States first attacking China. China is said to have attacked the United States if a member of the Politburo Standing Committee or the paramount leader of China approves an offensive physical attack on United States infrastructure, ships, military personnel, or civilians, inside United States territory, in direct retaliation to a US attack on China, and the attack is actually carried out. Cyberattacks will not be considered offensive physical attacks, but covert operations to e.g. assassinate American nationals, will count.

In case there is a dispute over whether China indeed attacked the United States, veracity will be determined via a consensus of Western media outlets.

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