Question
Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?
Total Forecasters4
Community Prediction
193 c
(1.33 c - 125k c)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 1.329 c | — |
| median | 193.3 c | — |
| upper 75% | 125k c | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >1M c | 18.8% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Aug 11, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 13, 2022
Authors:
Opened:Aug 11, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 13, 2022