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16
177
forecasters
33
16 comments
177 forecasters
AI Demonstrations
2 more...
Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?
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97%
chance
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15 comments
81 forecasters
2027 AI Bet winner between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage?
Gary Marcus
88%
Miles Brundage
12%
72 comments
326 forecasters
AI as a competent cook before 2030
16%
chance
11 comments
142 forecasters
AI verification of math proofs by 2030
95%
chance
24 comments
242 forecasters
AI Programming Competency before 2030
98%
chance
71 comments
421 forecasters
AI book comprehension before 2030
99.9%
chance
27 comments
284 forecasters
AI movie comprehension before 2030
99%
chance
14 comments
62 forecasters
AI resolving questions on Metaculus
2025
result:
No
2030
70%
2035
91%
2040
90%
2050
96%
2 comments
118 forecasters
AI-authored paper published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?
63%
chance