delivering quantitative wisdom formulating predictive futures calculating contingent understanding composing calibrated forecasts delivering intelligent insights mapping the future generating precise predictions aggregating definitive estimations mapping critical insights assembling accurate predictions aggregating probable wisdom exploring contingent futures crowdsourcing intelligent contingencies crowdsourcing contingent futures


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will Google's AlphaGo beat Go player Lee Sedol in March 2016?

The game of Go originated in China more than 2,500 years ago. While similar to chess in many ways, Go is much more minimalist in its ruleset and more esoteric in strategy. The aspect of pattern recognition and the huge state space of possible moves in Go (vastly greater than chess) make it an excellent metric for the capabilities of artifical intelligence.

Whereas DeepBlue defeated chess grandmaster Gary Kasparov in 1997, it has taken 20 years for computer Go systems to become competitive with top human players. Recently, dramatic advances in "deep learning" AI systems have led to the development of much more competitive Go software.

In a previous question we asked if a computer Go system would defeat a professional player in 2016. In this question the stakes go up.

Google's DeepMind recently announced that their Go-playing program AlphaGo defeated European Go champion Fan Hui in a closed-door game, and will be playing against the reigning Go world champion, Lee Sedol, in a five-game match in March. Will AlphaGo win?

This question will resolve positively if AlphaGo finishes five official games against Lee Sedol and wins three or more games, or if Lee Sedol concedes defeat. If AlphaGo loses or if the match is not finished by April 1 2016, the question resolves negatively.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.