Export bans are used in some cases by exporting countries to lower domestic prices and increase availability during shortages. However, they also add significant price pressure by further restricting supply, and the introduction of export bans can lead to a cascade.
Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023?
This question will resolve as Yes for any of the following countries which ban a major crop for export at any time between December 27, 2021 to April 1, 2023.
For this question, An export ban is defined as a complete prohibition on exporting any one or more varieties or cultivars of a major crop. Major crops will be strictly defined as the following crops for these countries:
- Russia: wheat, maize (corn)
- Ukraine: wheat
- India: wheat, rice, maize (corn)
- United States: wheat, rice, soybeans, maize (corn)
- China: wheat, rice, maize (corn)
- Thailand: rice
- Brazil: soybeans, maize (corn)
- Vietnam: rice
The export ban must come into force at any time between December 27, 2021 to April 1, 2023, but is not required to persist at any length of time or to remain in force on April 1, 2023. An announcement is not sufficient for resolution, the ban must be enforced during this period. The ban may be only applied to one or more particular varieties or cultivars of crops, or all varieties of that crop.
The ban must apply to exports anywhere outside the originating country. The ban may have narrow exceptions, such as allowing exports upon special authorization or in case of a humanitarian crisis. Exceptions will be considered 'narrow' if exports of the affected crops during the ban are less than 5% (in either dollar amount or weight) of what they were in the same period of the preceding year. If the ban is long enough and data are available, this will be checked based on actual export statistics. If this cannot be evaluated based on data, best judgement will be used to estimate whether the exceptions are narrow enough to likely cut exports below 5%.
The question may resolves as Yes even if the legality of such a ban is contested or is successfully struck down in court (as long as it was issued by a government body that might plausibly have some authority over export control, such as the President, Prime Minister, the Cabinet as a whole or a relevant Ministry).