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Next Conservative Leader (UK)


Related Question on Metaculus:

Boris Johnson became leader of the United Kingdom's Conservative and Unionist Party in July 2019. Johnson has experienced notable controversy as Prime Minister, including the Partygate scandal in 2021 and 2022. In June 2022, a vote of no confidence was held, where 59% of Conservative MPs voted to keep Johnson as leader of the party.

A new election for Conservative Party leadership may be triggered at any time, either by Johnson's resignation, or by a successful vote of no confidence.

Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election?

The question will resolve as Yes for the candidate below who is the winner of the next UK Conservative Party leadership election following the election on May 29, 2019. All other candidates will resolve as No.

This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed below, more options may be added in the future.

If the Conservative party ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative party leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as Ambiguous.

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