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Pan-Coronavirus Vaccine Approval by 2032

Healthy Communities Biosecurity Tournament

Question

As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, there is ongoing discussion on developing a "universal" coronavirus vaccine. One way to understand how wide-ranging different vaccine candidates might be in covering coronaviruses is to categorize them under the following four levels of coverage, as classified by Derek Lowe:

  • Type I Vaccines: generate immunity to all four genuses of coronavirus (i.e., the entire Coronaviridae virus family)
  • Type II Vaccines: generate immunity to the betacoronaviruses (i.e., covering this one genus of the Coronaviridae family)
  • Type III Vaccines: generate immunity to the sarbecovirus (lineage B) betacoronaviruses (i.e., covering this one subgenus of the betacoronavirus genus)
  • Type IV Vaccines: generate immunity to current and future variants of just the particular sarbecovirus we're dealing with, SARS-CoV-2.

The purpose of this question is to understand the potential for any of these pan-coronavirus vaccines to be authorized for the goal of addressing future possible coronavirus outbreaks.

Before 2032, will these pan-coronavirus vaccine candidates be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

This question will resolve as Yes for any of the following vaccine types below if a vaccine candidate of that type is authorized by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada at any point before January 1, 2032. Any kind of approval, including emergency approval, would count.

Any vaccine of a higher order is also, by definition, a vaccine of a lower order (for example, a type II pan-betacoronavirus vaccine also qualifies as a type III sarbecovirus).

Vaccines will be considered effective for a subset of coronaviruses if the government authority approves their use for all known coronaviruses in that class. For resolution, there will be no requirements on the demonstrated efficacy or safety of the vaccine; approval by any of the 4 government agencies is the sole criterion.

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