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9 comments
131 forecasters

Before 2032, will an intranasal SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

95%chance

This question is closed for predictions.

Forecast Timeline
Authors:
juancambeiro
Opened:Jun 23, 2022
Closed:Jan 10, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2032
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 25, 2022
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When will an intranasal SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be approved by the US?

20 Jul 2026
(11 Aug 2025 - Jul 2031)
20 Jul 2026
(11 Aug 2025 - Jul 2031)
5 forecasters

Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be approved by the FDA, EMA, or PMDA before 2028?

80% chance
24

In what year will an HIV vaccine demonstrating at least 50% efficacy in Phase III clinical trials receive regulatory approval (e.g., from the FDA or EMA) for widespread use?

Apr 2032
(09 May 2029 - Jul 2036)
Apr 2032
(09 May 2029 - Jul 2036)
3 forecasters
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