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378
comments
883
forecasters
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?
2025
result:
No
2026
0.5%
2028
12%
2 others
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Predict
Comments
Timeline
In the News
Question Info
Resolution Criteria
Key Factors
Background Info
Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
2026
2030
2028
Others (2)
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embed
Authors:
casens
Opened:
May 6, 2022
Closes:
Jan 1, 2035
Scheduled resolution:
Jan 1, 2035
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Geopolitics
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News Match
Invasion Drills Held on Both Sides of Taiwan Strait
Newsweek
•
Oct 22, 2025
Trump Says China Doesn’t Want to Invade Taiwan
AntiWar
•
Oct 21, 2025
Trump says China ‘doesn’t want’ to invade Taiwan and reaffirms trust in Xi
Guardian
•
Oct 20, 2025
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