378 comments

882 forecasters

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

2025result: No

20260.5%

202812%

2030

2028

2026

Authors:

Opened:

May 6, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

The Taiwan Tinderbox

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Invasion Drills Held on Both Sides of Taiwan Strait

Newsweek•Oct 22, 2025

Trump Says China Doesn’t Want to Invade Taiwan

AntiWar•Oct 21, 2025

Trump says China ‘doesn’t want’ to invade Taiwan and reaffirms trust in Xi

Guardian•Oct 20, 2025

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