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9
314
forecasters
14
9 comments
314 forecasters
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
2 more...
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?
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Ukraine
15.1%
Israel
13%
Pakistan
11%
India
10%
4 others
1d
1w
2m
all
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Nuc. Detonation in Non-Nuclear-Armed State
70%
chance
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Number of Cities Attacked Offensively
Europe
14.7
Russia
13.2
United States
10.7
China
10.5
4 others
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Pakistan
0.362
China
0.116
India
0.0824
Russia
0.0227
United States
0.0156
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1%
chance
69 comments
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At least 1 Nuclear Detonation in War by 2050
35%
chance
20 comments
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Nuclear States in 2030
9
50%
10
33%
11
5%
8
1%
3 others
4 comments
67 forecasters
# Nuclear Weapons Used by 2050, if Any
Current estimate
7.04 weapons