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Economic Trouble: 15% Currency Depreciation

Flourishing Futures Humanitarian Conflict & Economic Risk


This question aims to serve as a monitoring system to alert humanitarian agencies of an elevated risk of economic crisis.

The table below shows XE's exchange rate on July 1, 2022 at 00:00 UTC between the USD and the following currencies:

currency exchange rate (USD)
European Union Euro € 1.04778
Indonesian Rupiah Rp 0.000067007
Thai Baht 0.028306
Russian Ruble ₽ 0.0182412
Turkish Lira ₺ 0.0598871
Polish złoty ł 0.222959
Brazillian Real R$ 0.190350
Mexican Peso $ 0.0497329
Argentine Peso $ 0.00798582
Saudi Riyal SAR 0.266667
Iranian Rial IRR 0.0000236657
Egyptian Pound £E 0.0531892
Indian Rupee ₹ 0.0126620
Pakistani Rupee ₨ 0.00488955
Bangladeshi Taka ৳ 0.0106850
Nigerian Naira ₦ 0.00240808
Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥ 0.149281

(The Saudi Riyal is officially pegged to the US dollar. It would most likely need to be unpegged to depreciate by 15%.)

Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022?

Each of the currencies below will resolve as Yes if their exchange rate with the USD falls by 15% or more compared to the rate on July 1, 2022, according to XE. The authoritative exchange rate for July 1, 2022 is given in the table above. Rates will be measured on 00:00 UTC for each day between July 13, 2022 to December 31, 2022.


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