Related Questions on Metaculus:
On elections scheduled for November 8, 2022, US voters will elect all 435 members to the House of Representatives and 34 out of 100 members of the Senate. As of December 22, 2021, Democrats hold 8 more seats than Republicans in the House (with 1 seat vacant), and have the narrowest majority in the Senate with 50 Senators in the Democratic caucus, with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris to break 50-50 tied votes.
Democratic President Joe Biden said at A DNC party on December 14, 2021,
I just mentioned that we’d reduce the cost for American families. We have to keep making the case. And if we do, I believe we’re going to win. Let me say this again for the press: We’re going to win in 2022. I really mean it.
Republican Senator Rick Scott said to Fox Business on the same day,
We’re going to win [...] If your state was won by Joe Biden by less than 10 points, it’s a battleground state. We’re going to have races across the country.”
Generic congressional ballot data shows Republicans with a 1.6 percentage point lead over Democrats on December 22, 2021. Biden has a -8 percentage point net approval rating as of December 2021.
FiveThirtyEight journalist Geoffrey Skelley has reported a larger share of Democrats resigning from the House, arguing this is a signal of good prospects for Republicans.
Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections?
After the conclusion of the 2022 US congressional elections (and any following runoffs or recounts), if one party has more than 50% of seats in that chamber of congress, that party will be considered to control that chamber.
For the Senate, if seats are tied exactly 50-50 between two parties, the Senate will be "controlled" by the party of the President.
Independents or third-party congresspeople who are known to caucus with a specific party will be counted in that party's share of members.