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Next US Economic Recession

Question

An economic recession is a general term describing a phase of declining economic activity in a region or country. A common definition is two or more quarters of declining GDP, though the United States National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) uses a more general and subjective definition which includes

real personal income less transfers, nonfarm payroll employment, employment as measured by the household survey, real personal consumption expenditures, wholesale-retail sales adjusted for price changes, and industrial production. There is no fixed rule about what measures contribute information to the process or how they are weighted in our decisions.

The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell from 82.9 points in May 2021 to 58.4 in May 2022.

The IMF forecasted in June 2022 that the US would narrowly avoid a recession in 2022 and 2023. IMF's Nigel Chalk said that an economic shock, If large enough, could push the United States into a recession, but it would likely be short and shallow with a modest rise in unemployment.

In June 2022, Michael Kiley at the US Federal Reserve made a few models of economic growth, one of which implied the chance of recession at 67% over the next 2 years.

Will the US enter a recession before the following dates?

The sub-questions below will resolve as Yes if the US enters a recession at any time between January 1, 2021 to January 1 of the respective year, according to the US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

NBER may declare that a recession has occurred months after the fact, including after popular media consensus. If NBER does not declare that a recession has occurred in the relevant time period within 2 years, the question will resolve as No. For example, for the period ending in January 1, 2023, the question will resolve (at the latest) in January 1, 2025.

Categories:
Economy – US

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