Question
If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?
Total Forecasters22
Community Prediction
Nov 2035
(15 Nov 2028 - Nov 2054)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 15 Nov 2028 | — |
| median | Nov 2035 | — |
| upper 75% | Nov 2054 | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Apr 27, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2099
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 29, 2022
Authors:
Opened:Apr 27, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2099
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 29, 2022