Group
if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?
Forecast Timeline
Make a Prediction
| Number of Nuclear Detonations | My Prediction | Me | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
over 100 | 39% | |||
over 1,000 | 10% | |||
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Oct 28, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2055
If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?
Nov 2035
Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?
21.9%
Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?
9%
Authors:
Opened:Oct 28, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2055
If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?
Nov 2035
Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?
21.9%
Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?
9%