5 comments
46 forecasters
if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?
over 10039%
over 1,00010%
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Authors:
Opened:Oct 28, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2055
If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?
Nov 2035
(15 Nov 2028 - Nov 2054)
Nov 2035
(15 Nov 2028 - Nov 2054)
23 forecasters
Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?
21% chance
16
Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?
9% chance
20