103 comments
198 forecasters
When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?
00
Tesla07 Jun 2027
Any Service20 Oct 2026
Waymo04 Dec 2026
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Authors:
Opened:Sep 29, 2020
Closes:Dec 26, 2034
Scheduled resolution:Dec 26, 2034
On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?
4.36 states
(3.62 - 5.34)
4.36 states
(3.62 - 5.34)
62 forecasters
When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?
12 forecasters
When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?
Jul 2035
(02 May 2030 - Sep 2042)
Jul 2035
(02 May 2030 - Sep 2042)
101 forecasters