34 comments
60 forecasters
What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates?
This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved
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Opened:Jul 4, 2022
Closed:Jun 29, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Aug 29, 2025
What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates?
78 forecasters
What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?
50.1%
(38.6 - 61.6)
50.1%
(38.6 - 61.6)
60 forecasters
What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?
96.9%
(92.6 - 98.8)
96.9%
(92.6 - 98.8)
11 forecasters