Question
When will AI first be revealed to be superhuman at the board game Diplomacy?
Total Forecasters96
Community Prediction
26 Apr 2026
(21 Mar 2025 - 20 Dec 2027)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 21 Mar 2025 | — |
| median | 26 Apr 2026 | — |
| upper 75% | 20 Dec 2027 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Jan 2040 | 3.0% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jul 13, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 15, 2022
Authors:
Opened:Jul 13, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 15, 2022