Question

When will AI first be revealed to be superhuman at the board game Diplomacy?

Total Forecasters96
Community Prediction
26 Apr 2026
(21 Mar 2025 - 20 Dec 2027)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

QuartilescommunityMy Prediction
lower 25%21 Mar 2025
median26 Apr 2026
upper 75%20 Dec 2027
Upper bound
>Jan 20403.0%
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Opened:Jul 13, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 15, 2022