Question
When will AI first be revealed to be superhuman at the board game Diplomacy?
Total Forecasters96
Community Prediction
04 Mar 2026
(20 Feb 2025 - 31 Aug 2027)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 20 Feb 2025 | — |
| median | 04 Mar 2026 | — |
| upper 75% | 31 Aug 2027 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Jan 2040 | 3.2% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jul 13, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 15, 2022
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31 Jan 2026
Authors:
Opened:Jul 13, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 15, 2022
When will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks?
Oct 2034
When will an artificial intelligence achieve the main ending of "The Talos Principle" without being explicitly told about this goal?
Dec 2033
When will an AI be able to play Angry Birds at a level exceeding that of the best human players?
31 Jan 2026