9 comments
45 forecasters
Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend the general use of the monkeypox vaccine for all men who have sex with men in the US?
1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jul 24, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2023
Resolved:Jan 1, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 26, 2022
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In what year will an HIV vaccine demonstrating at least 50% efficacy in Phase III clinical trials receive regulatory approval (e.g., from the FDA or EMA) for widespread use?
Apr 2032
(09 May 2029 - Jul 2036)
Apr 2032
(09 May 2029 - Jul 2036)
3 forecasters
Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029?
5% chance
113
Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?
33% chance
9